Early last year we played a prediction game on this space. It's the time of the year to do reality check:
- Indian equities have done well and it sure feels good to have gotten that one right. However RBI has not done any serious monetary policy easing. Our prediction seems to have been a year too early (hopefully not more) on that!
- Rupee disappointed us. All that tightening by RBI (in FX markets) only caused Rupee to rebel more and go from bad to worse? However volatility in rupee was as expected and it has recovered well from the historic low it reached in 2012
- Euro Zone stayed in tact indeed; but will it in 2013?
- US is showing stability and growth as expected. Unemployment has been coming down gradually and fiscal cliff is overcome, well almost
- China's desire to replace dollar with it's own yuan, remained just a desire. We haven't heard more on that yet
- Gold did well but didn't match our expectation
- Libor rigging completely missed our radar and that was quite a miss!
(Check http://www.poiesis.co.in/2012/01/what-is-in-store-2012.html; watch this space for predictions for 2013)
Following table is a quick comparison of prices of select financial assets at the start and end of 2012:
Current
|
28 Dec 2011
| |
USD/INR
|
54.80
|
53.05
|
EUR/USD
|
1.3230
|
1.3070
|
GBP/USD
|
1.6227
|
1.5670
|
USD/JPY
|
86.72
|
77.78
|
DXY (Dollar index)
|
79.70
|
79.80
|
Sensex
|
19594
|
15730
|
Dow
|
13104
|
12291
|
Nikkei
|
10395
|
8423
|
NY Gold
|
1675
|
1592
|
10Y USD T
|
1.71
|
2.00
|
10 Y IND T
|
8.04
|
8.50
|
Call
|
8.2
|
9.00
|
1 yr OIS (In)
|
7.60
|
7.75
|
5 yr OIS (In)
|
7.12
|
7.00
|
Wishing you and your loved ones a wonderful year ahead! May this year be filled with opportunities, success and celebrations!!
